Working Papers Series
Papers below are in pdf.
Jeff Milyo
WP 06-03
Estimating the Impact of State Policies and Institutions with Mixed-Level Data
David M. Primo, Matthew L. Jacobsmeier and Jeffrey Milyo
Researchers often seek to understand the effects of state policies or institutions on individual behavior or other outcomes in sub-state-level observational units (e.g., election results in state legislative districts). However, standard estimation methods applied to such models do not properly account for the clustering of observations within states and may lead researchers to overstate the statistical significance of state-level factors. We discuss the theory behind two approaches to dealing with clustering—clustered standard errors and multilevel modeling. We then demonstrate the relevance of this topic by replicating a recent study of the effects of state post-registration laws on voter turnout (Wolfinger, Highton, and Mullin 2005). While we view clustered standard errors as a more straightforward, feasible approach, especially when working with large datasets or many cross-level interactions, our purpose in this Practical Researcher piece is to draw attention to the issue of clustering in state and local politics research.
JEL Codes: C10, D79, H79
Keywords: Mixed-Level Data, Voter Turnout
WP 05-13
Campaign Finance Laws and Political Efficacy: Evidence From the States
David M. Primo and Jeff Milyo
The decline of political efficacy and trust in the United States is often linked to the rise of money in politics. Both the courts and reform advocates justify restrictions on campaign donations and spending as necessary for the improvement of links between the government and the governed. We conduct the first test of whether campaign finance laws actually influence how citizens view their government by exploiting the variation in campaign finance regulations both across and within states during the last half of the 20th century. Our analysis reveals no large positive effects of campaign finance laws on political efficacy. Public disclosure laws and limits on contributions from organizations are in some cases associated with modest increases in efficacy, but public financing is associated with a similarly modest decrease in efficacy.
JEL Codes: D78, H8, Z13
Keywords: Campaign finance, trust, social capital
forthcoming in Election Law Journal
WP 05-12
Did the Devil Make Them Do It? The Effects of Religion and Religiosity in Public Goods and Trust Games
Lisa R. Anderson, Jennifer M. Mellor and Jeff Milyo
We test whether religious affiliation and participation in religious services are associated with behavior in public goods and trust games. Overall, religious affiliation is unrelated to individual behavior. However, we find some weak evidence that among subjects attending religious services, increased participation is associated with behavior in both public goods and trust games.
JEL Codes: C9, H4 and Z12
Keywords: Public goods, experiments, religion, and trust
WP 05-02
An Experimental Study of the Effects of Inequality and Relative Deprivation on Trusting Behavior
Lisa R. Anderson, Jennifer M. Mellor and Jeff Milyo
Several non-experimental studies report that income inequality and other forms of population-based heterogeneity reduce levels of trust in society. However, recent work by Glaeser et al. (2000) calls into question the reliability of widely used survey-based measures of trust. Specifically, survey responses regarding trust attitudes did not reflect subjects’ actual behavior in a trust game. In this paper, we conduct a novel experimental test of the effects of inequality on trust and trustworthiness. Our experimental design induces inequality by varying the show-up fees paid to subjects, in contrast to previous experiments that focus on broad cultural or national differences in trust. We do not find robust support for the hypothesis that inequality per se dampens trusting behavior among all subjects; however, we do find some evidence that trust and trustworthiness are influenced by an individual’s relative position in the group. Finally, we confirm previous findings that common survey-based measures of social trust are not associated with actual trusting behavior.
JEL Codes: C9, Z13
Keywords: Trust, Social Capital, Heterogeneity, Inequality, Experiment
WP 05-01
A Measure of Media Bias
Tim Groseclose and Jeff Milyo
In this paper we estimate ADA (Americans for Democratic Action) scores for major media outlets such as the New York Times, USA Today, Fox News’ Special Report, and all three network television news shows. Our estimates allow us to answer such questions as “Is the average article in the New York Times more liberal than the average speech by Tom Daschle?” or “Is the average story on Fox News more conservative than the average speech by Bill Frist?” To compute our measure, we count the times that a media outlet cites various think tanks and other policy groups. We compare this with the times that members of Congress cite the same groups in their speeches on the floor of the House and Senate. By comparing the citation patterns we construct an ADA score. As a simplified example, imagine that there were only two think tanks, and suppose that the New York Times cited the first think tank twice as often as the second. Our method asks: What is the typical ADA score of members of Congress who exhibit the same frequency (2:1) in their speeches? This is the score that we would assign to the New York Times. Our results show a strong liberal bias. All of the news outlets except Fox News’ Special Report and the Washington Times received a score to the left of the average member of Congress. Consistent with many conservative critics, CBS Evening News and the New York Times received a score far left of center. Outlets such as USA Today, NPR’s Morning Edition, NBC’s Nightly News and ABC’s World News Tonight were moderately left. The most centrist outlets (but still left-leaning) by our measure were the Newshour with Jim Lehrer, CNN’s NewsNight with Aaron Brown, and ABC’s Good Morning America. Fox News’ Special Report, while right of center, was closer to the center than any of the three major networks’ evening news broadcasts. All of our findings refer strictly to the news stories of the outlets. That is, we omitted editorials, book reviews, and letters to the editor from our sample.
JEL Codes: D29, D79, H89
Keywords: Media Bias
forthcoming in Quarterly Journal of Economics
WP 04-19
State Social Capital and Individual Health Status
Jennifer M. Mellor and Jeffrey Milyo
Recent studies have found that two state-level measures of social capital, average levels of civic participation and trust, are associated with improvements in individual health status. In this study we employ these measures, together with the Putnam (2000) index, to examine several key aspects of the relationship between state social capital and individual health. We find that for all three measures, the association with health status persists after carefully adjusting for household income, and that for two measures, mistrust and the Putnam index, the size of this association warrants further attention. Using the Putnam index, we find particular support for the hypothesis that social capital has a more pronounced salutary effect for the poor. Our findings generate both support for the social capital and health hypothesis and a number of implications for future research.
JEL Codes: I12, Z13
Keywords: Social Capital, Health
forthcoming in Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law
WP 04-18
Inequality, Group Cohesion, and Public Good Provision: An Experimental Analysis
Lisa Anderson, Jennifer Mellor and Jeffrey Milyo
Recent studies argue that inequality reduces group cohesiveness and dampens support for expenditures on public goods and social programs. In light of competing theoretical explanations and mixed empirical evidence of the effect of inequality on public goods provision, we conduct a test using a public goods experiment. Our design introduces inequality by manipulating the levels and distributions of fixed payments given to subjects for participating in the experiment. When made salient through public information about each individual’s standing within the group, inequality in the distribution of fixed payments reduces contributions to the public good for all group members.
JEL Codes: D31, H41, Z13
Keywords: Public Good, Inequality, Free Rider
WP 04-17
Do Liberals Play Nice? The Effects of Party and Political Ideology in Public Goods and Trust Games
Lisa Anderson, Jennifer Mellor and Jeffrey Milyo
We test the conventional wisdom that political ideology is associated with generosity or compassion by comparing the behavior of experimental subjects in public goods or trust games. We find that self-described liberals and those identifying more closely with the Democrat party are just as likely to free-ride as conservatives or Republican-leaners; likewise, political ideology is unrelated to observed trusting behavior or trustworthiness in a bilateral trust game.
JEL Codes: D63, H41
Keywords: Political Party, Free Rider
chapter in: Advances in Applied Microeconomics: Experimental and Behavioral Economics. John Morgan, Ed. JAI Press: Stamford, CT (forthcoming)