Working Papers Series

Papers below are in pdf.

Peter Mueser

WP 09-12
Recent Changes In The Characteristics Of Unemployed Workers
Marios Michaelides & Peter R. Mueser

We examine how gender, racial, and ethnic variation in unemployment and Unemployment Insurance (UI) receipt changed over time in the U.S. economy and how these changes are influenced by shifts in the occupational and industrial composition of employment. Using Current Population Survey (CPS) data, we find that, in the past 50 years, the unemployment rates for women, nonwhites, and Hispanics have been converging to those of the rest of the population. Between 1992 and 2007, women had the same unemployment rates as men; nonwhites still had higher unemployment rates than whites; and the rate for Hispanics was approaching that of non-Hispanics. Once we control for industry-occupation differences, women have higher unemployment and UI receipt rates than men, while Hispanics have similar unemployment rates but lower UI receipt rates than non-Hispanics. Nonwhites still have appreciably higher unemployment rates but the same UI receipt rates as whites.

JEL Codes: J11, J15, J16, J65
Keywords: Unemployment, Unemployment Insurance, Gender, Race, Ethnicity

WP 09-01
New Estimates of Public Employment and Training Program Net Impacts: A Nonexperimental Evaluation of the Workforce Investment Act Program
Carolyn J. Heinrich, Peter R. Mueser, Kenneth R. Troske, Kyung-Seong Jeon, and Daver C. Kahvecioglu

This paper presents nonexperimental net impact estimates for the Adult and Dislocated Worker programs under the Workforce Investment Act (WIA), the primary federal job training program in the U.S. The key measure of interest is the difference in average quarterly earnings or employment attributable to WIA program participation for those who participate, estimated for up to four years following entry into the program. These estimates of WIA program impact are based on administrative data from 12 states, covering approximately 160,000 WIA participants and nearly 3 million comparison group members. Propensity score matching methods are used to compare WIA program participants with comparison groups of individuals who are observationally equivalent across a range of demographic characteristics, social welfare benefit receipt, geographic area, and prior labor market experiences but who either did not receive WIA services or did not receive WIA training. The results for the average participant in the WIA Adult program show that participating is associated with a several-hundred-dollar increase in quarterly earnings. The marginal benefits of training may exceed $400 in earnings each quarter three years after program entry. Dislocated Worker program participants experience smaller benefits than for those in the Adult program. Although it is not possible to rule out the possibility that some of our estimates may be influenced by systematic selection, we undertake a variety of robustness tests suggesting that the general pattern of the results almost surely reflects actual program impacts on individual participants.

JEL Codes: I38, J08, J24
Keywords: Job Training, Program Evaluation, Workforce Investment Act, Matching

WP 08-02
Population Movements in the Presence of Agglomeration and Congestion Effects: Local Policy and the Social Optimum
David M. Mandy, Peter R. Mueser & Eric Parsons

We investigate the efficiency properties of population mobility when localities compete in an environment with local amenities and local externalities. Our model is dynamic, incorporating land and labor markets in a context where firms and workers form rational expectations. Concern focuses on whether and under what conditions the substantive conclusions from static models can be reinterpreted to apply in a dynamic context where moving is costly. In the spirit of Tiebout (1956), it can be shown in static models that taxes or subsidies developed by each local jurisdiction representing the interests of landowners can induce an efficient population allocation even in the presence of local externalities. We show that, in a dynamic model, efficiency of mobility requires that localities represent the interests of other local stakeholders, including residents and firms, as well as landowners. There may be multiple sets of equilibrium flows corresponding with alternative expectations. We consider institutional arrangements that may facilitate preferred paths.

JEL Codes: H21, J61
Keywords: geographic mobility, optimal population distribution

WP 07-20
The Impact of Welfare Reform on Leaver Characteristics, Employment and Recidivism: An Analysis of Maryland and Missouri
Peter R. Mueser, David W. Stevens and Kenneth R. Troske

State and federal reforms of the 1990s transformed the U.S. cash assistance program for single parents and their children. Despite an extensive literature examining these changes and their impacts, there have been few studies that consider the effects of these reforms from the perspective of the recent period. The analysis here focuses on the characteristics and employment of welfare recipients in Maryland and Missouri, 1991-2004. We find that there has been only modest change in the observable characteristics of those entering, remaining on or leaving welfare, but the importance of employment has grown for each of these groups. We also examine the dynamics of employment and welfare recidivism, comparing cohorts of leavers prior to and after welfare reform. We find that after welfare reform leavers are much more likely to be working. Although in Maryland those working have earnings that are somewhat below employed leavers prior to reform, in Missouri earnings for employed leavers are unchanged. In both states, the types of jobs leavers hold have not changed substantially, and leavers are less likely to return to welfare following reform.

JEL Codes: I380
Keywords: welfare reform

WP 07-19
The Role of Temporary Help Employment in Low-wage Worker Advancement
Carolyn J. Heinrich, Peter R. Mueser, and Kenneth R. Troske

We examine the effects of temporary help service employment on later earnings and employment for individuals participating in three federal programs providing supportive services to those facing employment difficulties. The programs include Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, whose participants are seriously disadvantaged; a job training program with a highly heterogeneous population of participants; and employment exchange services, whose participants consist of Unemployment Insurance claimants and individuals seeking assistant in obtaining employment. We undertake our analyses for two periods: the late 1990s, a time of very strong economic growth, and shortly after 2000, a time of relative stagnation. Our results suggest that temporary help service firms may facilitate quicker access to jobs for those seeking employment assistance and impart substantial benefits as transitional employment, especially for individuals whose alternatives are severely limited. Those who do not move out of temporary help jobs, however, face substantially poorer prospects, and we observe that nonwhites are more likely than whites to remain in THS positions in the two years following program participation. Our results are robust to program and time period.

JEL Codes: J48, J26, J68
Keywords: temporary help, mediated employment, program evaluation

WP 07-02
Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance
Peter R. Mueser, Kenneth R. Troske and Alexey Gorislavsky

We use administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of earnings impact estimates for a job training program based on alternative nonexperimental methods. We consider regression adjustment, Mahalanobis distance matching, and various methods using propensity score matching, examining both cross-sectional estimates and difference-in-difference estimates. Specification tests suggest that the difference-in-difference estimator may provide a better measure of program impact. We find that propensity score matching is most effective, but the detailed implementation is not of critical importance. Our analyses demonstrate that existing data can be used to obtain useful estimates of program impact.

JEL Codes: C14, C21, C52
Keywords: program evaluation, training programs, matching

updated from WP 05-20
forthcoming in Review of Economic and Statistics

WP 06-02
The Effects of Welfare-to-Work Program Activities on Labor Market Outcomes
Andrew Dyke, Carolyn J. Heinrich, Peter R. Mueser, Kenneth R. Troske & Kyung-Seong Jeon

Studies examining welfare-to-work program effectiveness present mixed and sometimes discrepant findings, partly due to research design, data, and methodological limitations. Using administrative data on Missouri and North Carolina welfare recipients, we substantially improve on past estimation approaches to identify the distinct effects of each state's welfare-to-work sub-programs—assessment, job search assistance and job readiness training, and more intensive programs designed to augment human capital. More intensive training is associated with greater initial earnings losses but also greater long-run earnings gains. The negative program impacts we observe in quarters immediately following participation turn positive by the second year after participation.

JEL Codes: C210, I380, J240
Keywords: Program evaluation, Welfare-to-work, Matching, Job training
Forthcoming in Journal of Labor Economics

WP 05-20
Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance
Peter R. Mueser, Kenneth R. Troske & Alexey Gorislavsky

This paper uses administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of job training program earnings impact estimates based on alternative nonexperimental methods. In addition to simple regression adjustment, we consider Mahalanobis distance matching and a variety of methods using propensity score matching. In each case, we consider both crosssectional estimates and difference-in-difference estimates based on comparison of pre- and postprogram earnings. Specification tests suggest that the difference-in-difference estimator may provide a better measure of program impact. We find that propensity score matching is generally most effective, but the detailed implementation of the method is not of critical importance. Our analyses demonstrate that existing data available at the state level can be used to obtain useful estimates of program impact.

JEL Codes: H43, I38, I28
Keywords: Noexperimental Methods, Matching, Difference-in-Difference

Updated as WP 07-02
forthcoming in Review of Economic and Statistics

WP 04-11
An Evaluation of Missouri's A+ Schools' Program
Myoung Lee, Peter Mueser & Mike Podgursky

The A+ Schools Program was initiated to offer financial incentives to students to attend Missouri’s public 2-year post-secondary schools. Under the program, the state government provides eligible students with college expenses, but only students in specially designated schools are eligible. It also promotes high school institutional change through the provision of grants to high schools. The program was initiated in 1997 and continues to be phased in gradually. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the effects of the A+ Program on Missouri high schools and post-secondary institutions. The use of administrative data provided by the Missouri state government assures greater reliability of the measures of program participation and postsecondary school attendance than obtained in studies using survey data. Program impacts are based on difference-in-differences estimators using the high school as the unit of analysis. Outcome measures include high school dropout rates, college enrollment rates, average test performance, and grades of high school seniors.

The results suggest that high schools that initially have greater enrollments in 2-year colleges are more likely to participate in the program. Schools participating in the A+ program experience declines in dropout rates and A+ designation also increases the number of graduates who enroll in Missouri 2-year public colleges. This increase in enrollment in 2-year public colleges is the result of behavioral changes in two types of students: those who would not have gone to college at all and those who would have gone to other types of post-secondary institutions. Enrollment in 4-year public post-secondary institutions has decreased as a result of the program.

JEL Codes: I21, J24, I28
Keywords: Education Policy, Financial Aid; Post-Secondary Education

WP 04-09
Welfare and Work in the 1990s: Experiences in Six Cities
Christopher T. King and Peter R. Mueser

Our study examines the dynamic structure of welfare participation and the labor market involvement of recipients starting in the early 1990s and extending through 1999 in the core counties containing six major urban areas: Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago, Fort Lauderdale, Houston, and Kansas City. By focusing on six major cities, we can examine the extent to which differences in state and local policy, administrative directives, and local labor market conditions contribute to observed trends.

Published as "Welfare and Work: Experience in Six Cities," (2005), Upjohn Institute

WP 03-13
Low-Income and Welfare Client Priorities: Patterns of Earnings and Welfare Receipt for Workforce Investment Act Participants
Peter R. Mueser & David W. Stevens

This paper examines labor market and welfare experiences of participants in Workforce Investment Act (WIA) programs who exited in July 2000-June 2001. Administrative data from six states on earnings and welfare receipt are used to trace the experiences of participants in the two years prior to and in the year following exit from WIA. Individuals are classified as “Adults” or “Dislocated Workers” and by whether they received “Training” or less intensive services under WIA. We find that Adults have large employment gains associated with participation in WIA, and Adults in Training have particularly large earnings gains. Following losses, employment and earnings of Dislocated Workers largely recover following WIA participation. Welfare receipt declines, especially for those in Training activities. Despite some differences, similarities between states in basic patterns are striking.

Published in "A Compilation of Selected Papers from the Employment and Training Administration's 2003 Biennial National Research Conference." Washington: U.S. Department of Labor, 2003

WP 03-09
Using State Administrative Data to Measure Program Performance
Peter R. Mueser, Kenneth Troske & Alexey Gorislavsky

This paper uses administrative data from Missouri to examine the sensitivity of job training program impact estimates based on alternative nonexperimental methods. In addition to simple regression adjustment, we consider Mahalanobis distance matching and a variety of methods using propensity score matching. In each case, we consider estimates based on levels of post-program earnings as well as difference-in-difference estimates based on comparison of pre and post-program earnings. Specification tests suggest that the difference-in-difference estimator may provide a better measure of program impact. We find that propensity score matching is generally most effective, but the detailed implementation of the method is not of critical importance. Our analyses demonstrate that existing data available at the state level can be used to obtain useful estimates of program impact.

Paper updated as WP 05-20

WP 03-08
Welfare to Temporary Work: Implications for Labor Market Outcomes
Carolyn J. Heinrich, Peter R. Mueser & Kenneth Troske

We explore the effects of temporary help employment on welfare recipients’ subsequent employment and welfare dynamics. We find that any employment–in temporary help services or other sectors–yields substantial benefits compared to no employment. Although welfare recipients who go to work for temporary help service firms have lower initial wages than those with jobs in other sectors, they experience faster subsequent wage growth. Two years later, they are no less likely to be employed, their wages are close to those of other workers, and they are only slightly more likely to remain on welfare.

published, with revisions in Review of Economics and Statistics, (February 2005), pp 154-173

WP 03-07
Race, Bureaucratic Discretion, and the Implementation of Welfare Reform
Lael R. Keiser, Peter R. Mueser & Seung-Whan Choi

This paper explores the impact of the race of individual clients and of the local racial context on the implementation of sanctions for recipients of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) in a Midwestern state. We find that although nonwhites are sanctioned at lower rates than whites overall, nonwhites are sanctioned more compared to whites in each local area. This paradox occurs because nonwhites tend to live in areas with lower sanction rates. Consistent with the literature on race and policy, we find that sanction rates increase as the nonwhite population increases until a threshold is reached where nonwhites gain political power.

Published in American Journal of Political Science, (vol. 48, no. 2, April 2004) pp. 314-327

WP 02-19
Welfare Reform in the Cities:
The Transition from Public Aid to Employment in Six Urban Areas During the 1990s*
Christopher T. King and Peter R. Mueser

*Updated Manuscript (WP 04-09)

WP 02-06
Welfare to Temporary Work: Implications for Labor Market Outcomes
Carolyn J. Heinrich, Peter R. Mueser and Kenneth R. Troske

Recent welfare reforms are prompting some state and local welfare agencies to use temporary help service firms to help place welfare recipients into jobs. Concerns have arisen that these jobs are more likely to pay low wages, provide fewer benefits, and offer less stability. We explore the effects of temporary help firms on the labor market outcomes of welfare recipients by looking at the characteristics of welfare recipients who go to work for temporary service firms and by examining their subsequent employment and welfare dynamics. We find that although welfare recipients who go to work for temporary help service firms have lower initial wages they experience faster subsequent wage growth. Two years later, their wages are only slightly below workers who initially had jobs in other sectors, and they are no more likely to be unemployed and are only slightly more likely to remain on welfare.

Revised paper (WP 03-08)

WP 02-05
The Impact of Welfare Reform on Leaver Characteristics, Employment and Recidivism
William J. Carrington, Peter R. Mueser and Kenneth R. Troske

Welfare reform has transformed the U.S. cash assistance program for single parents and their children. Although there remains substantial uncertainty about the importance of reform in producing the subsequent decline in the welfare caseload, even less is known about its impact on the experiences and well being of former welfare recipients. The analysis here focuses on the characteristics and employment of welfare recipients in the state of Missouri over the period 1990-1999. We find that there has been little change in the observable characteristics of those entering, on, or leaving welfare, but there has been a dramatic growth in the importance of employment for all these groups. We also examine the dynamics of employment and welfare recidivism comparing cohorts of leavers prior to and after welfare reform. We find that after welfare reform leavers are much more likely to be working, have higher total earnings, work for employers with similar characteristics, and are less likely to return to welfare. These results suggest that welfare reform has not materially harmed welfare recipients.

WP 00-05
The Welfare Caseload, Economics Growth and Welfare-to-Work Policies: An Analysis of Five Urban Areas
Peter R. Mueser, Julie L. Hotchkiss, Christopher T. King, Phillip S. Rokicki, David Stevens

This paper uses quarterly data on AFDC (later TANF) recipients in five major urban areas to examine the relative importance of policy reform and economic conditions in explaining the dynamics of the welfare caseload and the employment experiences of welfare leavers. We find that changes in both welfare exits and entries played an important role in the caseload declines of the 1990s. Policy changes were primary in causing changes in these flows, with economic conditions of secondary importance. Although welfare reforms were accompanied by substantial increases in the employment of those leaving welfare, this appears to be largely the result of an increasingly tight labor market rather than the reforms.