Michael Pesko
Dr. Pesko’s research examines the causal effects of public policies on health behaviors, market outcomes, and economic decision-making. His work applies quasi-experimental methods to large-scale administrative, retail, and survey datasets to evaluate how policies affecting prices, access, and information shape individual and market responses, including the estimation of counterfactual outcomes.
A central focus of this research is tobacco and e-cigarette regulation, including taxes, flavor restrictions, minimum legal sale age laws, and indoor vaping restrictions. Across multiple studies, his work provides evidence consistent with substitution between e-cigarettes and cigarettes in response to policy changes. More broadly, his research examines health insurance mandates, paid sick leave, maternal and infant health, cancer screening, hearing healthcare access, and other policy-relevant questions in health economics.
His work often leverages policy variation across jurisdictions and time to identify causal effects using observational data. He has published over 90 peer-reviewed papers, which have been cited over 3,500 times, including over 25 e-cigarette policy evaluation papers, and his research has been supported by more than $10 million in funding from the National Institutes of Health and the American Cancer Society. He is the director of the Social Impact Lab, a multidisciplinary research group spanning economics, law and policy, and public health, and the Tobacco Online Policy Seminar. He has contributed to scientific and policy discussions through service on advisory bodies in the United States and Canada, and has provided expert testimony in litigation involving competition and regulation.
The Impact of Legal Abortion on Maternal Mortality (with S.M. Farin, L. Hoehn-Velasco), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2024.
Using variation in early state abortion legalizations, provides causal evidence that legal abortion reduced maternal mortality, with larger effects for non-White women.
Cancer Screening Following the Adoption of Paid Sick Leave Mandates (with K. Callison, et al.), New England Journal of Medicine, 2023.
Using staggered adoption of paid sick leave mandates, finds that mandates increase breast and colorectal cancer screening, highlighting time constraints as a barrier to preventive care.
The Effect of Paid Sick Leave Mandates on Coverage, Work Absences, and Presenteeism (with K. Callison), Journal of Human Resources, 2022.
Using variation in paid sick leave mandate adoption, provides causal evidence that mandates expand coverage, modestly increase absences, and reduce presenteeism, with effects concentrated among workers most likely to gain coverage.
The Effects of E-cigarette Taxes on E-cigarette Prices and Tobacco Product Sales: Evidence from Retail Panel Data (with C.D. Cotti, et al.), Journal of Health Economics, 2022.
Using variation in e-cigarette taxes and retail data, provides causal evidence that taxes increase prices, reduce e-cigarette sales, and increase cigarette sales through substitution.
Intended and Unintended Effects of E-cigarette Taxes on Youth Tobacco Use (with R. Abouk, et al.), Journal of Health Economics, 2023.
Using variation in state e-cigarette taxes, finds that taxes reduce youth vaping but increase cigarette use through substitution.
The Effect of E-cigarette Taxes on Prepregnancy and Prenatal Smoking (with R. Abouk, et al.), Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 2023.
Using variation in e-cigarette taxes across U.S. births, provides causal evidence that taxes increase pre-pregnancy and prenatal smoking through cross-product substitution.
Flavored E-cigarette Sales Restrictions and Young Adult Tobacco Use in the United States (with A. Friedman, T.R. Whitacre), JAMA Health Forum, 2024.
Using staggered adoption of flavored e-cigarette restrictions, finds that bans reduce vaping but increase cigarette smoking among young adults through substitution.
Have Recreational Marijuana Laws Undermined Public Health Progress on Adult Tobacco Use? (with D. Dave, et al.), Journal of Health Economics, 2023.
Using variation in marijuana legalization, finds no increase in adult tobacco use and some evidence of modest declines.
The Effects of Contemporaneous Air Pollution on COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality (with W. Austin, et al.), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2023.
Using wind-driven variation in air pollution exposure, provides causal evidence that higher pollution increases COVID-19 cases and deaths.